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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Kansas has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has risen sharply in Kansas: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.71 (95% range 0.36–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.71 (95% range 0.36–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.680.331.0
20270.680.341.0
20280.690.351.0
20290.700.361.0
20300.710.361.1

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leoville820181971
Phillipsburg720251968
Jewell619851971
Beloit 2520182007
Susank420152007
Solomon420251982
Damar320162000
Coats220091967
Albert220251974
Kanopolis220231993
Gray220141973
Rock Creek220021990
Hollenberg220251969
Minneapolis220191967
Missler220091986
Berwet220242000
Melrose120232012
Lapland119911991
Thrall119701970
Wellington120242023
Dalton120231969
St John120191973
Coldwater120021993
Ashland119731973
Jewell 2120242010

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.