BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Utah has surged: up 396% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+396%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Utah: up 396% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.90.009.5
20263.90.009.5
20273.90.009.5
20283.90.009.5
20294.00.009.5

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardware Ranch8020231994
Hyrum7219791975
Ant Flat-Ogden Can4320231994
Woodruff4120242002
Hanna3720241997
Uintah Nf2919941987
Lost Cr. Res2720181995
Hatch2620241994
Kamas2020241997
Alton 21920242021
Jensen1720241994
Lynn1520231982
Hill Creek1519951993
Aneth1420241993
Moab1120241987
Goose Creek Mtn.1120231997
Main Canyon1020241989
Gooseberry920241994
Beck819871968
Beaver720241968
Randolph720241992
Heber Mtn.720241996
Altonah520151975
Blanding520012001
Moon Lake520031993

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.