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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Utah has surged: up 451% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+451%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Utah: up 451% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Utah is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Utah is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.00.009.6
20274.10.009.6
20284.10.009.6
20294.10.009.6
20304.10.009.6

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardware Ranch8020231994
Hyrum7219791975
Ant Flat-Ogden Can5020251994
Hanna3720241997
Hatch3320251994
Woodruff3220252002
Uintah Nf2919941987
Kamas2720251997
Lost Cr. Res2720181995
Moab1820251987
Newcastle1820251997
Main Canyon1620251989
Hill Creek1519951993
Lynn1120251982
Jensen1020251994
Alton 21020252021
Goshen920251969
Beaver920251968
Beck819871968
Heber Mtn.820251996
Altonah720251975
Skyline Driv720251986
Soapstone720251992
Dixie Nf720251993
Aneth620251993

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.