BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in New York has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.6–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.6–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025137.819
2026137.719
2027137.718
2028137.718
2029137.618

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nashville4920181967
Watertown4620121967
N Victory4619721967
Cattaraugus4220191967
Ogdensburg4220241979
Dryden4020241966
Philadelphia3720241980
Oneonta3320241968
Meridale3120241967
Pulaski3120241967
Branchport2920241967
Rifton2519861967
Mcdonough2520171967
Mt Morris2520241967
Corbettsvile2420241966
Oxford2419761967
Castile2320241967
Phillips Cr2220241967
Randolph2220181967
S Berne 22220242014
Duanesburg2120241966
Oriskany Fls2120241967
Penfield2120241968
Naples2120241966
Jones Beach2020131966

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.