BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in New York has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has risen sharply in New York: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.9–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.9–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026148.019
2027148.019
2028147.919
2029147.919
2030137.919

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville5120251968
Nashville4920181967
Macdougall4720251969
Watertown4620121967
N Victory4619721967
Cattaraugus4220191967
Castile4220251967
Dryden3820251966
Sheridan3820251966
Philadelphia3820251980
Ogdensburg3620251979
Meridale3220251967
Oneonta3120251968
East Java3120251967
S Berne 23120252014
Branchport2920241967
Pulaski2920251967
Orleans2820251967
Oriskany Fls2720251967
Cicero Ctr2720251966
Rifton2519861967
Mcdonough2520171967
Naples2520251966
Oxford2419761967
Cayuga2420251969

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.