BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Indiana has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Indiana: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Indiana is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.6–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Indiana is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.6–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.45.4
20263.92.45.4
20274.02.55.5
20284.02.55.5
20294.12.65.6

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Packertown1620041967
Indiana Dune1620241993
Packertown 21520242005
Middlebury1320241989
Wallace1320241999
Lakeville720241993
Ellis620241966
Middletown620241967
Wabash620241981
Friendswood520241986
Sexton520171981
Indian Spgs520241982
Clear Spring520231981
New Brunswick420242024
Gary319981980
Columbia Cty320241981
Thorntown320241983
Plainfield319991999
Witts Station320242000
Portage 2320232006
Hebron220211967
South Bend219911968
Muncie219971981
Jamestown220241986
Azalia220021982

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.