BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Kentucky has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has collapsed in Kentucky: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Kentucky is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Kentucky is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.001.8
20270.290.001.7
20280.260.001.7
20290.230.001.7
20300.200.001.6

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil3619971996
Paintsville1819951979
Gesling1619731969
Pine Ridge1519781966
Campton920211979
Phelps519971979
Pippa Passes319971988
Mckee320251967
Kehoe319921967
Levee 2320192007
Lebanon Junction320072000
Shiloh220091995
Pleasurevill220251981
Johnsonville220181967
Kehoe 2220242005
Demunbruns219951966
Drakesboro219851976
Buena Vista220161966
East Union220181966
Cumberlnd Gp120181966
Lovelacevile119901973
Canton120061970
Keysburg120101970
Cedar Grove119871984
Iron Bridge119871978

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.