BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Ohio has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.54.48.6
20276.54.48.6
20286.54.48.6
20296.54.48.6
20306.64.58.6

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stonecreek3120251996
Garrettsvile2219911966
Bismark2119951967
Smithfield1720251966
Pittsfield1620241992
Middlefield1320171967
Newcomerstwn1319951967
Adamsville1319891971
Valley City1320251995
Birmingham1320241988
Graytown1019841966
New Marshfld1020251966
Coal Run1019921966
Baxter Ridge920251998
Cumberland920171966
Tick Ridge920191993
Kunkle820251992
Lenox820251966
Herner Crns820251971
Dresden820251966
Botkins720191993
Kenton720251967
Darrtown720191969
Omega720241966
Wayland620171992

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.