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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Virginia has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has collapsed in Virginia: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Virginia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.73
20260.000.000.73
20270.000.000.73
20280.000.000.73
20290.000.000.73

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marion1019821976
Walkers1020092005
Newville720051990
Ivanhoe619681968
Rural Retrt620241982
Isom420241969
Blacksburg420241988
Taylorstown320071969
Quinby319941993
Clinchport319751967
Irisburg320121976
Iron Mountain 3320232014
Colonial Pky319981996
Stanley220151966
Tryme220221975
Partlow219811981
Covington219931966
Newbern219821968
Big Island220021969
Covesville220121967
Hall220121967
Brandon220062006
White Stone220221980
Hebron220221981
Chincoteag W220131992

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.