BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Vermont has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Vermont is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 1.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Vermont is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 1.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.41.711
20276.41.611
20286.41.611
20296.31.611
20306.31.511

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal2420251966
S Wallingfrd1820221966
Fletcher1620251968
Shaftsbury1220251966
W Rutland1220251966
Hinesburg1219941966
Stowe1220241988
Bristol1020251995
East Haven920251969
Colchester920251986
Stratton820251966
Greensboro720251967
Waterville719801967
Grand Isle720251967
Newbury 2720232008
Marlboro620251966
Landgrove520251968
Hardwick520241967
Gaysville420251966
Post Mills320251966
S Reading220231966
St Johnsbury220251970
Newbury220041986
Northfld Fls120181980
Middlesex120221969

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.