BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Vermont has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.3 (95% range 1.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.3 (95% range 1.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.41.611
20266.41.611
20276.31.511
20286.31.511
20296.31.511

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fletcher2420241968
S Wallingfrd1820221966
W Rutland1720241966
Grand Isle1520241967
Hinesburg1219941966
Stowe1220241988
Shaftsbury1020241966
Gaysville820211966
East Haven820241969
Waterville719801967
Newbury 2720232008
North Pownal620241966
Post Mills520241966
Hardwick520241967
Bristol520181995
Stratton420241966
Landgrove220241968
S Reading220231966
Newbury220041986
Colchester220241986
Marlboro120221966
St Johnsbury120241970
Northfld Fls120181980
Middlesex120221969
East Calais120241967

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.