BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Alabama has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has collapsed in Alabama: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±436.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±436.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±436.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.14
20260.000.000.14
20270.000.000.14
20280.000.000.14
20290.000.000.14

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Talladega420072004
Millerville219731969
Maytown219811967
Lanett219821968
St Florian119801973
Hillsboro119851966
Trade119811966
Summitt119691966
Swaim119961979
Pine Grove120141974
Dawson119961973
Dearmanville119711966
Sunny Eve120011991
Greensport120051966
Smyer Lake120141966
Mt Olive120031966
Liberty120011967
Harrell119871973
Billingsley119811981
Warrior Std119691969
Nixburg 2120102010
Latham119841984
Foley119721972
Birmingham119901971
Guntersville120031988

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.