BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in West Virginia has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has fallen sharply in West Virginia: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.8–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in West Virginia is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 1.8–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.32.48.2
20275.22.28.1
20285.02.18.0
20294.92.07.8
20304.81.87.7

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smithfield2820251993
Nicut2020251986
Moundsville2020251972
Pt Pleasant1920251973
Breeden1720241986
Hubbardstown1720251966
Meadland1720251997
Bebee1720251972
Mt Storm1519751966
Clinton1520241966
Spencer1420241986
Olcott1320241966
Berryburg1119961975
Yawkey1020241966
Henderson1020232002
Stollings920211986
Sutton920251976
Albright819741966
Lost River820251996
Ruthbelle720251975
Valley Head620251966
Meadowville620251972
Pedro520251979
Canaan520251974
Sugar Grove520251966

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.