BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.1 (95% range 7.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.1 (95% range 7.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.86.911
20268.87.011
20278.97.011
20289.07.111
20299.17.211

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ashby5020211997
Wigwam Bay4420231967
Sherburne Nr3320241990
Beltrami2620241967
Knapp2520241967
Brainerd2520241993
Edwards2420241973
Caledonia 22220242013
Brook Park2120241998
Glyndon2020241978
Waskish2020241978
Lude1920231978
Oklee1820211969
Tracy1820242004
Glenwood1820191993
Mille Lacs1620241967
Backus1620241967
Greenbush1620241993
Evergreen1520241967
Debs1520241969
New London1420241994
Mahtowa1420231993
Pine River1220241967
Wylie1220241970
Princeton1120241969

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.