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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 8.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 7.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 8.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 7.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.86.911
20278.97.011
20289.07.111
20299.07.211
20309.17.211

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ashby5020211997
Sherburne Nr5020251990
Wigwam Bay4420231967
Backus2620251967
Brainerd2520241993
Edwards2420241973
Brook Park2420251998
Greenbush2420251993
Beltrami2320251967
Tracy2220252004
Lude2020251978
Glyndon1820251978
Oklee1820211969
Glenwood1820191993
Lockhart1820251993
Evergreen1720251967
Mille Lacs1620241967
Minnetonka1520251970
Knapp1520251967
Waskish1420251978
New London1420241994
Mahtowa1420231993
Appleton1320251988
Wylie1220241970
Millville1120251967

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.