BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Arkansas has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.14
20260.060.000.14
20270.060.000.14
20280.050.000.14
20290.050.000.14

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Avoca319771973
Augusta219671967
Wilson220232008
Lurton219811967
Lafe120172017
Stamps120172015
Ashdown120112011
Hughes120221973
Crowley'S Ridge120242012
England120132013
Hollywood119761976
Ulm120232010
Waldron119841984
Stark119681968
Maynard120092009
Fulton119811981
Compton120141967

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.