BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Idaho has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Idaho is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 5.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Idaho is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 5.3–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.75.414
20279.75.414
20289.75.414
20299.75.314
20309.75.314

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville7320251972
Magic Mtn6420251987
Challis5920251975
Gifford4920171971
Cascade4319841968
Cabarton3920241985
Naples3820251972
Sunbeam3020251994
Almo2920251988
Featherville1920251989
Joel1820241989
Pierce1620071990
Cobalt1420251989
Rochat Divde1320251993
Henry1219831973
Ririe1020251971
N Fork Cda R1020191993
Mivoden820251977
Cape Horn820251972
Sawtooth City 2820252015
Silver City820251989
Pocatello720191979
Cedar Hill720241993
Squirrel620251971
Coolin520251986

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.