BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Nebraska has surged: up 756% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+756%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Nebraska: up 756% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Nebraska is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.9–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Nebraska is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.9–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.14.57.7
20276.24.67.8
20286.34.77.9
20296.44.88.0
20306.54.98.1

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chambers3620252023
Sumner2720251978
Eagle Creek2620251967
Almeria2320211970
Midway2320251967
Wheeler Co2320251978
Sparta2120251981
Pine Ridge2120251999
Murdock1720252018
Nenzel1620252018
Tilden1520252019
Brownlee1320251990
Berwyn 21320252014
Boelus1220222018
Berwyn1220101993
Brady1120251980
Ponca1120252018
Richland1020251969
Johnstown1020251967
Crawford1020251980
Kearney820251968
Bartley820251975
Kennedy820251993
Bassett820252018
Madison820252025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.