BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Nebraska has surged: up 696% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+696%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Nebraska: up 696% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Nebraska is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 4.7–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Nebraska is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 4.7–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.84.37.4
20265.94.47.5
20276.04.57.6
20286.24.67.7
20296.34.77.8

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chambers4020232023
Sumner2420241978
Eagle Creek2420241967
Almeria2320211970
Midway2220231967
Brady2020241980
Wheeler Co1920241978
Kearney1720241968
Nenzel1720242018
Tilden1520242019
Richland1320241969
Johnstown1320241967
Ponca1320242018
Brownlee1220241990
Boelus1220222018
Berwyn1220101993
Belvidere1120241971
Bartley1120241975
Murdock1120242018
Sargent920242021
Pine Ridge920241999
Surprise820241968
Kennedy820241993
Bassett820242018
Petersburg720231969

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.