BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Missouri has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Missouri: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.715
2026129.815
2027139.915
2028131015
2029131015

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Filley3320241975
Ohio3120241972
Osage Beach2920241997
Rockingham2620241969
Frankford2520241985
Mincy2520242013
Gildehouse2419891978
Gerald2420242013
Whitewater2320241996
Cp Girardeau2220241967
Crane2220241994
Kingsville2220241992
Williamsvill2020241994
Centerville2020241994
Doe Run2020242015
Sweden1820241968
Clementine 21820072005
Moselle1820242000
Huntsville1720241967
Cassville1620241967
Norborne1520232006
Lincoln1520242013
Pineville1420241974
Cascade1420241967
Wesco1420241972

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.