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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Missouri has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Missouri: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.715
2027129.815
2028139.915
2029131015
2030131015

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kingsville2920251992
Filley2820251975
Cp Girardeau2720251967
Frankford2720251985
Handley2520251967
Gerald2520252013
Rockingham2420251969
Gildehouse2419891978
Whitewater2320251996
New Point2320251994
Moselle2320252000
Centertown2120251973
Ohio1920251972
Sweden1820251968
Cascade1820251967
Clementine 21820072005
Miller1820252014
Huntsville1720251967
Crane1620251994
Osage Beach1620251997
Williamsvill1520251994
Barks1520251994
Norborne1520232006
Harrisonville1520252025
Syracuse1420241969

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.