BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Vermont has surged: up 772% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

+772%Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Vermont: up 772% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.79–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.79–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20032030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.571.6
20271.20.621.7
20281.20.681.7
20291.30.741.8
20301.30.791.9

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaftsbury720252014
North Pownal520252005
Marlboro320252018
W Rutland320252003
S Wallingfrd220222015
Stratton120142012
S Reading120242024
Gaysville120252025
Post Mills120252017
East Calais120222022
Fletcher120252024
Colchester120252023
Bristol120252025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.