BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Vermont has surged: up 795% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

+795%Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Vermont: up 795% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.67–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Vermont is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.67–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20032029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.451.5
20261.00.511.6
20271.10.561.6
20281.10.611.7
20291.20.671.7

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W Rutland420242003
North Pownal220242005
Post Mills220242017
Shaftsbury220242014
S Wallingfrd220222015
Marlboro120242018
Stratton120142012
S Reading120242024
East Calais120222022
Fletcher120242024
Colchester120232023

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.