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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Pennsylvania has surged: up 43× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

43×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Pennsylvania: up 43× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 6.7–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.7–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 6.7–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.56.18.9
20277.66.29.0
20287.86.49.2
20297.96.59.3
20308.16.79.5

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stoneybreak2720251992
Plesant Grov2420241982
Duvall2320211974
Mifflintown2020251984
Doe Run2020251969
Doylesburg2020232009
Espyville1920251967
Chatham1820251997
Schaefferstown 21620252002
Drehersville 21620252000
Tussey Mtn.1620251993
Waller1520251994
Honesdale1520251998
West Grove1419961966
Brick Tavern1420251990
Wakena1320231988
Pine Gr Mill1320251972
Mount Joy1320251978
Greentown1220241979
Jefferson1220251966
Jeannette1220231997
Arnot1120251993
Harrisville1120251997
Mt Gretna 21120222001
Shrewsbury1120231991

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.