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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Pennsylvania has surged: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

45×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Pennsylvania: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 6.6–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 6.6–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.46.08.8
20267.66.29.0
20277.76.39.1
20287.96.59.3
20298.06.69.4

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stoneybreak3420241992
Mifflintown2720241984
Plesant Grov2420241982
Duvall2320211974
Kaylor2020241995
Doylesburg2020232009
Elizabethvil1820241995
Chatham1820241997
Harmonsburg1720231994
Peru Mills1520241971
Middletown1520241975
West Grove1419961966
Berwick1420241995
Beaver1320241977
Wakena1320231988
Doe Run1320241969
Mars1320241989
Teepleville1220241996
N Washington1220241995
Greentown1220241979
Margaret1220241990
Jeannette1220231997
Honesdale1120241998
Naginey1120241981
Hometown1120241983

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.