BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in New York has surged: up 89× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

89×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in New York: up 89× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in New York is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in New York is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.6–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.34.7
20263.62.44.8
20273.72.44.9
20283.72.54.9
20293.82.65.0

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Purdy1920221984
Huntington1720231972
Highland1620221993
W Shokan1520191993
Rhinebeck1320241982
North Easton1320242005
Hamburg1220241997
Penfield1220241970
Austerlitz1120241997
Naples1120241978
Catskills1020151989
Canadice L1020241975
Ghent920241997
Corbettsvile920242010
Orleans920241967
Dryden820241983
Manorville720241990
Westbrookvle720191991
Trumansburg720241973
Castile720241983
St Johnsburg720241994
N Victory 2720211978
Crescent720241998
Cobleskill620232000
Oriskany Fls620231991

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.