BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in New York has surged: up 89× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

89×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in New York: up 89× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in New York is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.7–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in New York is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.7–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.45.0
20273.82.55.1
20283.92.65.2
20293.92.75.2
20304.02.75.3

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Naples2420251978
Penfield2320251970
Churchville2120251970
Purdy1920221984
Huntington1720231972
Highland1620221993
Hamburg1620251997
W Shokan1520191993
North Easton1420252005
Austerlitz1120251997
Castile1120251983
St Johnsburg1120251994
Byron1120251979
Catskills1020151989
S Berne 2920252014
Manorville720241990
Westbrookvle720191991
Corbettsvile720252010
E Newark720252003
Dryden720251983
Macdougall720251971
Trumansburg720241973
Orleans720251967
Sheridan720252024
N Victory 2720211978

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.