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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 8.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.8–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 8.8–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.613
2027118.613
2028118.713
2029118.813
2030118.813

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cypress Lakes3120252004
Milltail Cr3020251992
Montague2620251990
Sheffield2220251991
Bullock2220251997
Cypress Cr2120221990
Green Swamp2120062002
Fairview2020251991
Dudley2020252002
Youngsville1920251966
Call1920251968
Supply1920251992
Flay1920251990
California 21820252014
Durham1820251990
Jackson1820171995
Merrimon1720231969
Oakboro1720251969
Eden1720251987
Newport1720231995
Gupton1720252001
Jordan1620251966
Dortches1620251990
Climax1520251966
Jamesville1520251983

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.