BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.513
2026118.513
2027118.613
2028118.613
2029118.713

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montague3620241990
Cypress Lakes3120242004
Supply2520241992
Milltail Cr2420241992
Oakboro2320241969
Jamesville2320241983
Durham2220241990
Fairview2220241991
Cypress Cr2120221990
Sheffield2120241991
Green Swamp2120062002
Sheep Ridge2020241994
Gupton1920242001
Call1820241968
California 21820242014
Genoa1820241990
Jackson1820171995
Dudley1820242002
Merrimon1720231969
Newport1720231995
Monticello1720241990
Hamlet1620241995
Ostwalt1520242012
Beargrass1419811966
Speed1420241966

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.