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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Connecticut has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

24×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Connecticut: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Connecticut is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 7.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Connecticut is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 7.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.06.711
20269.26.911
20279.47.112
20289.67.312
20299.87.512

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mid Haddam1620241979
Willimantic1220181984
Danbury1120231989
Long Hill1120191987
Westbrook920241983
Warren920111983
Southington820241994
Granby820241993
Mystic520231989
Buckingham520221982
Woodstock 2520242016
Warren 2520242012
Uncasville420241985
Woodstock420071988
Greenwich420181976
E Hartland219921989
Sherman220191981
New Hartford219871986
No Woodbury120241980
New Hartford120241995

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.