BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas. See the full index history below.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.7 (95% range 2.7–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.62.64.7
20273.72.64.7
20283.72.64.7
20293.72.74.7
20303.72.74.7

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin3220162006
Smyrna3020101995
Lydia2620251967
Diboll2220251968
Crossroads2220251967
Alexander St2120251995
Weches2120251995
Liberty Hill2020251968
Port Acres1920251994
Goliad Prairie1920162006
Powell Park 21920252022
Caledonia1820251969
Fred1820251995
Paige1720252015
Neches Bith1720172016
Easton 21720252014
New Waverly1620251969
Chandler1620041968
Muldoon1420251970
Massey Lake1420251970
Bon Wier1420251996
Hinkles Fer1220251968
Arenosa Crk1220251969
Morton1220251970
Union Hill1220241994

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.