BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas. See the full index history below.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.6–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.6–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.64.6
20263.62.64.6
20273.62.64.7
20283.62.64.7
20293.72.64.7

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin3220162006
Smyrna3020101995
Goliad Prairie1920162006
Caledonia1820241969
Weches1820241995
Neches Bith1720172016
Town Bluff1620241967
Diboll1620241968
Chandler1620041968
Paige1620242015
Bon Wier1420241996
Muldoon1220241970
New Waverly1220241969
Sadler1220241969
Union Hill1220241994
Alexander St1220241995
Mt. Selman1220241998
Moon Lake 21220242012
Hinkles Fer1120241968
Port Acres1120241994
Powell Park1120211995
Powell Park 21120242022
Massey Lake1020241970
Morton1020241970
Moon Lake1020111994

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.