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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Michigan has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Michigan: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.5–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.5–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.43.25.6
20274.53.35.7
20284.63.45.7
20294.63.55.8
20304.73.55.9

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cohoctah1720252021
Nashville1420251968
Galesburg1320251966
Howardsville1320251970
Mottville1220251971
Fowlerville1220191974
Almena1020151993
Lawrence920251970
Scottville820251992
Prattville820211973
Hamburg 2820252004
Belding 2720252004
Rochester720251993
Bravo620231974
Deckerville620241985
New Buffalo620141992
Barry S.G.A. 2620192013
Belding520031983
Sand Lake520251985
Monterey420251978
Remus420251986
St Charles420101982
No Bradley420251993
Maple Rapids420251987
Waldenburg420171984

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.