BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Kentucky has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-bellied Woodpecker in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.215
2026128.315
2027128.415
2028128.415
2029128.515

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boxville3119831966
Bardwell2620031967
Joy2620231966
Johnsonville2120211966
Gatewood1920191966
Carter1920241976
Sulphur Lick1820241966
Kehoe 21820242005
Cumberlnd Gp1620181973
Merrimac1620241967
Sewell Shop1620231966
Daniel Boone1519881966
Morganfield1520242022
Mammoth Cave1520141995
Porter1420241966
Bays Fork1420191999
Riverqueen1320242007
Pleasurevill1320241979
Sunnybrook1220221968
Mammoth Cave North1220132009
Dixie1120191967
Goshen1119991966
Lebanon Junction1120242000
Mckee1020241969
Hodgenville1020031967

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.