BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Nebraska has surged: up 596% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+596%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Nebraska: up 596% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Nebraska is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.91–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Nebraska is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.91–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.821.7
20261.30.841.7
20271.30.861.8
20281.30.891.8
20291.40.911.8

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt1920242018
Johnson1020241993
Irvington920241972
Murdock720242018
Liberty 3720242009
Seward620241969
Julian520241969
Liberty520031967
Bartley520241980
Hampton520242022
Petersburg419951995
Liberty 2420072004
Pine Ridge320222022
Eagle Creek320221976
Belvidere220242007
Sumner220071987
Gretna220181977
Richland220241977
Almeria220211991
Thurston220241967
Midway220231987
Brownlee220092009
Wheeler Co220242000
Kenesaw120242024
Kearney120231987

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.