BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Illinois

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Illinois has surged: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+283%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Illinois: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.4 (95% range 6.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.4 (95% range 6.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.16.39.9
20278.26.410.0
20288.36.510
20298.46.610
20308.46.610

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bremen3720251969
Pulaski2920251970
St Morgan2620221967
Mt Vernon2620251972
Delwood2620251970
Athensville2220251971
Belleview2120251966
Eldred2120251993
Athens2120251995
Duncan Mills2020251993
Royalton1920252001
Mascoutah Lk1820251967
Concord1720251967
Kell1720252001
Sandusky1620231993
Bradbury1520251970
Concord West1520252001
Bartonville1420251975
Yale1420251993
Guilford1320231967
Belknap1320251970
Cave In Rock1320241993
Payson1220252000
Geneseo1120251967
Chandlervill1120251971

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.