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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.67.412
20269.77.512
20279.77.612
20289.87.712
20299.97.812

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend3220231967
Hughes2620231967
Saffell2220191967
Crowley'S Ridge1720242011
Coal Hill1620231967
Ravenden Springs1520152010
Farwell1420182010
Nance1420241992
Stamps1320241967
Zion1320241967
Blakely1219991968
Lockesburg1220192010
Ashdown1120231967
Whitton1119911967
Boston Mtn.1120241994
Springhill1020222010
Rudy1020242011
Locust Bayou920231967
Augusta920011967
Maynard920241967
Compton920221967
Sims920242010
England920242010
Old Milo820241967
Rupert820241967

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.