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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 3.7–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 3.7–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.63.79.5
20276.63.79.5
20286.63.79.5
20296.63.79.5
20306.63.79.5

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ringgold2420251983
Jerome2220251971
Churchville2020251966
David1920131968
Fincastle1720251967
Irisburg1720251976
Taylorstown 21720252012
Port Royal1620251977
Big Island1620251968
Surry1620251977
Cornland1620141975
Gladys1620251994
Brodnax1520251973
Brandy Station1320252017
Rural Retrt1320251982
Star Tannery1220251977
Pungo1220251975
Carters Brdg 21220252015
Natural Brid1120251974
Amherst1120251968
Lake Anna1120252021
Taylorstown1020101967
Stanley1020251966
Tryme1020251975
Partlow1020151977

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.