BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 8.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 3.5–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 8.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 3.5–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.43.59.3
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20296.43.59.3

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
David1920131968
Irisburg1820241976
Lake Anna1820242021
Churchville1620241966
Big Island1620241968
Brodnax1620241973
Cornland1620141975
Brandy Station1620242017
Surry1420241977
Ringgold1420241983
Pungo1420241975
Gladys1320241994
Stanley1220241966
Edinburg1120241969
Jerome1120231971
Carters Brdg 21120242015
Rural Retrt1120241982
Taylorstown1020101967
Partlow1020151977
Isom1020241969
Amherst1020241968
Shipman1020241969
Concord1020241967
White Stone1020241966
Quinby1020241966

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.