BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in New Jersey has surged: up 28× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

28×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in New Jersey: up 28× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 9.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 9.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026108.512
2027118.712
2028118.913
2029119.113
2030119.313

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dover2620231979
Croton 22620252008
Pedricktown 21820252013
Sandbrook1620251971
Bloomsbury1520251969
Pomona1520251979
High Point1320251986
Six Points1220251978
Holmansville1220091978
Croton1220071974
Keyport1220221991
Spraguetown 31220252023
Woodbury Hgt1020251967
Greenwich1020251966
Gillette1020251989
Ramseysburg1020251995
Kemah Lake920241982
Winslow920251990
Estell Manor820252021
Roosevelt720221986
Cape May Ch720131992
Pedricktown720121991
Bennett Mill 2720252016
Bennett Mill520001976
Hope419941975

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.