BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in New Jersey has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

26×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in New Jersey: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 9.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in New Jersey is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 9.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025108.212
2026108.412
2027108.612
2028118.812
2029119.013

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
High Point2620241986
Dover2620231979
Pomona1820241979
Sandbrook1420241971
Bloomsbury1420241969
Gillette1420241989
Pedricktown 21420242013
Ramseysburg1320241995
Holmansville1220091978
Croton1220071974
Keyport1220221991
Estell Manor1120222021
Croton 21120242008
Greenwich1020241966
Kemah Lake920241982
Roosevelt720221986
Friendship720241987
Cape May Ch720131992
Pedricktown720121991
Winslow620241990
Bennett Mill520001976
Hope419941975
Pottersville420241977
Woodbury Hgt320241967
Six Points320241978

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.