BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Minnesota has surged: up 970% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+970%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Minnesota: up 970% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.98–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.98–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.891.7
20261.30.911.7
20271.30.941.8
20281.40.961.8
20291.40.981.8

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 22620242013
Chatfield 22320242005
Frontenac1420191996
Whitewater820001994
Courtland720241982
Edwards620241992
Le Roy620241993
Chatfield519991969
Millville520191971
Austin520231993
Caledonia420121993
Tracy420242004
Hartland320131972
Minnetonka320241973
Osseo320241979
Knapp320241982
Mille Lacs320242007
Brainerd320241995
Money Creek220241969
Dawson220232004
Princeton220241971
St Stephen220161967
Appleton220232008
Wigwam Bay220231992
Evergreen220231991

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.