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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Minnesota has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

12×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Minnesota: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.931.8
20271.40.961.8
20281.40.981.8
20291.41.01.9
20301.51.01.9

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 22420252013
Minnetonka1720251973
Frontenac1420191996
Chatfield 21420252005
St Stephen920251967
Whitewater820001994
Edwards620241992
Chatfield519991969
Austin520231993
Knapp420251982
Caledonia420121993
Hartland320131972
Huntley320251992
Osseo320241979
Appleton320252008
Mille Lacs320242007
Le Roy320251993
Tracy320252004
Brainerd320241995
Money Creek220251969
Millville220251971
Lakeville220252014
Arlington220252002
Dawson220232004
Princeton220251971

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.