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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Tennessee has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Tennessee: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025131015
2026131015
2027131015
2028131115
2029131115

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield3820241966
Big Sandy2720241966
Humboldt2320241966
Union Hill2120241967
Collinwood1820241966
Oliver Spgs1820221966
Corryton Rd1820191966
Silerton1720241967
Trace Lewis1720172013
Tibbs1620241966
Jasper1520241971
Brownsville1420241966
Indian Mound 21420232004
Moscow1320241966
Tiptonville1220231966
Whiteville1220241966
Trenton1220231967
Glen1220241966
Trace Collinwood1220182015
Sweetlips1120231966
Indian Mound1119981966
Smokey Jct1120221966
Mt Olive1120241966
Wrigley1020221966
Silver Pt1020241966

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.