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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Tennessee has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-bellied Woodpecker Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Tennessee: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 11–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026131015
2027131015
2028131015
2029131115
2030131115

Red-bellied Woodpecker Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt2620251966
Big Sandy2420251966
Mansfield2420251966
Signal Mtn2220251979
Union Hill2120241967
Pond Creek1920251966
Oliver Spgs1820221966
Corryton Rd1820191966
Silerton1720241967
Peytonsville1720251966
Trace Lewis1720172013
Tibbs1420251966
Indian Mound 21420232004
Trenton1220231967
Collinwood1220251966
Lewis Forest1220251966
Trace Collinwood1220182015
Moscow1120251966
Sweetlips1120231966
Indian Mound1119981966
Smokey Jct1120221966
Mt Olive1120241966
Wrigley1020221966
Silver Pt1020241966
Glen1020251966

Red-bellied Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.