BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+178%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.11–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.36 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.11–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.091.3
20260.680.101.3
20270.690.101.3
20280.690.111.3
20290.700.111.3

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palace820242018
Williamsvill620241994
Clementine 2520072005
Ironton419801973
Wesco420081974
Clementine419961976
Sticklervill419721972
Osage Beach420232000
Deventer319821982
Sweden220231988
Handley220071987
Huntsville220211978
Viburnum220242017
Trenton219721972
Bennett220231995
Barks220211994
Centerville220231994
Moselle220242001
Millwood220142004
Pulaski120171990
Peace Valley120211977
Cassville120112003
Pineville119841984
Cascade120241973
Akers120011967

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.