BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+61%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Warbler has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.020.27
20270.150.030.27
20280.150.030.28
20290.150.030.28
20300.150.030.28

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozark Nf320251996
Lurton320101967
Avoca319671967
Marshall220212018
Nance220072005
Zion220221995
Magazine Mtn120172017
Boston Mtn.120232002
Sims120182010
Hatfield 2120252023
Poyen 2120232013
Rudy120232011
Saffell120132000
Rupert120071995
Stark119711971
Massard119721972
Fulton120221983
Compton120081968

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.