BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Minnesota has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+306%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Warbler has surged in Minnesota: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Minnesota is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.050.21
20260.140.050.22
20270.140.060.22
20280.140.060.22
20290.140.060.22

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 2820242013
Caledonia420091993
Chatfield 2320242006
Debs320172017
Whitewater320001994
Money Creek220181971
Sherburne Nr220232017
Frontenac220192008
Chatfield119771977
Ashby120122012
Millville120111968
Minnetonka119911991
Blackduck120052005
Tamarac Nwr119981996
Whitewater 2120192011
Nett Lake120182016

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.