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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Virginia has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-9%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2019, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2019TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2019 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2019, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762019
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20150.030.000.11
20160.030.000.11
20170.030.000.11
20180.030.000.11
20190.030.000.11

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nat Tunnel420001981
Taylorstown119881976
Elamsville119821982
Tryme119971988
Rural Retrt119871984
Gr North Mtn119941994
Isom120101984
Putnam120141993
Covington120131983
Amherst120071989
Shipman120051986
Hall119841984
Pine Mtn.120041997

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.