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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Kentucky has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.001.0
20260.480.001.0
20270.480.001.0
20280.490.001.0
20290.490.001.0

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil1219971996
Pine Ridge819781966
Beattyville 2820242006
Levee 2820192007
Pippa Passes719971988
Gesling619731973
Campton620211979
Paintsville519951979
Kehoe419921967
Mammoth Cave219981998
Hegira220151993
Carter220241976
Kehoe 2220212005
Johnsonville220171987
Demunbruns219811966
East Union220091977
Cumberlnd Gp120111996
Lovelacevile119891989
Canton120101976
Cedar Grove119791972
Sunnybrook120222001
Monticello120221992
Mckee120231976
Beattyville119991967
Levee119801972

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.