Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler

ParulidaeForest birdsVermivora cyanoptera

Blue-winged Warbler has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Blue-winged Warbler

The Blue-winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 789 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 28 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Blue-winged Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.030.21
20260.120.020.21
20270.120.020.21
20280.110.020.21
20290.110.020.21

Where the Blue-winged Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Blue-winged Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend by State

Blue-winged Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-87%196826
Arkansas+33%197118
Connecticut-76%196820
Delawareinsufficient datan/a1
Georgia-72%19758
Illinois+37%197922
Indiana-18%196820
Iowainsufficient datan/a2
Kentucky+20%196840
Maryland-35%197121
Massachusetts-10%196926
Michigan+443%197150
Minnesota+306%197116
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a2
Missouri+178%197148
New Hampshire-29%197110
New Jersey-90%196833
New York+12%196894
North Carolinainsufficient datan/a5
Ohio-1%196859
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a2
Pennsylvania-9%1968101
Rhode Island+56%19705
Tennessee-36%196827
Vermont-32%19925
Virginia-9%198213
West Virginia-25%196953
Wisconsin+282%196862

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Blue-winged Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Boreal Hardwood Transition-18%198024
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-39%196869
Atlantic Northern Forest+4%196923
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-24%196846
Prairie Hardwood Transition+376%1968111
Central Hardwoods-8%1968105
Southeastern Coastal Plain-81%196915
Appalachian Mountains-16%1968274
Piedmont-81%197234
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-49%196878

Blue-winged Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 46% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.