BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Warbler has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-winged Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.93
20270.220.000.91
20280.210.000.90
20290.190.000.88
20300.170.000.86

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT62025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT62018
BedfordNEW-YORK51996
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND52025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS42025
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS42025
AlbionNEW-JERSEY41992
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY31991
Spraguetown 2NEW-JERSEY32004
WesthamptonNEW-YORK32005
HauppaugeNEW-YORK32001
WestbrookCONNECTICUT22006
DanburyCONNECTICUT22015
WarrenCONNECTICUT22011
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT22025
GranbyCONNECTICUT22019
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS22019
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS22025
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY22012
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY21996
Mt MiseryNEW-JERSEY21979
WinslowNEW-JERSEY22002
MysticCONNECTICUT12023
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11992
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.