BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.94
20260.230.000.93
20270.210.000.91
20280.200.000.89
20290.180.000.88

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WillimanticCONNECTICUT62018
BedfordNEW-YORK51996
AlbionNEW-JERSEY41992
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS32024
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY31991
Spraguetown 2NEW-JERSEY32004
WesthamptonNEW-YORK32005
HauppaugeNEW-YORK32001
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT22024
WestbrookCONNECTICUT22006
DanburyCONNECTICUT22015
WarrenCONNECTICUT22011
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT22024
GranbyCONNECTICUT22019
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS22019
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS22024
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY22012
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY21996
Mt MiseryNEW-JERSEY21979
WinslowNEW-JERSEY22002
MysticCONNECTICUT12023
E HartlandCONNECTICUT11992
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT12021
WoodstockCONNECTICUT12007
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.