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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Alabama has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Warbler has collapsed in Alabama: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.10
20260.000.000.10
20270.000.000.10
20280.000.000.10
20290.000.000.10

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hillsboro219821975
Dawson219711971
Howard219881969
Liberty219871966
St Florian119761975
Trade119811971
Summitt119751968
Swaim120241972
Pine Grove119711970
Millerville119731972
Sunny Eve120171967
Greensport120051966
Smyer Lake119921967
Mt Olive120021966
Maytown119841966
Billingsley119891988
Blocton119761969
Whitehouse120181987
Jena119831983
Youngtown120171994
Carrollton119961996
Odenville119971997
Borden Sprng119981994
Vina120221996
Stevenson120132013

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.