BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Rhode Island has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+89%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-winged Warbler has surged in Rhode Island: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Rhode Island is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Rhode Island is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.890.002.9
20270.870.002.9
20280.860.002.8
20290.850.002.8
20300.840.002.8

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shannock520251973
Quonset Pt120211966
Wallum Lake120251973
Pulaski119911991
Casimir Pulaski Sf120182018

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.