BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Indiana has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±238.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.33
20260.140.000.33
20270.140.000.33
20280.140.000.33
20290.140.000.32

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Georgia320212001
New Phila220231982
Hoosier120191990
Indiana Dune120011994
Middlebury120002000
Packertown119931967
Ellis120061971
Swayzee120012000
Belmont120221983
Azalia119871982
Brookville120232005
Cumback119841975
Indian Spgs120171983
Clear Spring120241983
Corydon120231966
Vevay120211970
Scottsburg120062006
Cross Plains120232000
Lakeville120241999
Packertown 2120132006

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.