BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Ohio has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.35–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.35–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.351.9
20261.10.351.9
20271.10.351.9
20281.10.351.9
20291.10.351.9

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tick Ridge720191993
Bolins Mills620241966
Ray520231992
Rome520241966
New Marshfld420241966
Wayne N.F.320241993
Shawnee S.F.320001992
Strongsville319831966
Dresden320241966
Shawnee S.F. 2320192001
Scioto Furn320221992
Tar Hollow220241992
Scioto Trail220131992
Pike S.F.220131992
Birmingham220241988
Petersburg220071996
Marion219721972
Meadowbrook220071973
Smithfield220241968
Omega220221966
Coal Run219921966
Zaleski S.F.120241992
Pittsfield120221995
Ashley120011990
Mohican S.F.120241992

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.