BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in New York has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.12–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.12–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.690.121.3
20270.690.121.3
20280.690.121.3
20290.690.121.3
20300.690.121.3

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rifton919861967
Bedford519961967
Branchport520241973
Platte Cove419901990
Mcdonough420151976
Centerville420131967
Pulaski420251979
Orange Lake419921987
Westhampton320051967
Hauppauge320011966
Duanesburg320171971
Canadice L320251968
Mendon320081977
East Java320001967
Cherry Hill320191969
Oneida319971977
Newcomb320132013
Somers219771970
Westbrookvle220181968
Catskills220071977
Ballston Lk219951995
Cobleskill220231976
E Newark220221991
Romulus219971988
Trumansburg220231972

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.