BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in West Virginia has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in West Virginia is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in West Virginia is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.930.002.1
20260.930.002.1
20270.920.002.1
20280.910.002.1
20290.910.002.1

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear Creek720231988
Nicut620241986
Josephs Mill620221995
Henderson620232002
Stollings520211986
Clendenin520231979
Fayetteville519961990
Slate420241981
Washburn420221974
Breeden320241986
Sutton320241993
Arlee219751966
Spencer220221986
Mcdonald220231988
Berryburg219961979
Greer220151978
Martinsburg219971997
Hix120051997
Smoot120121998
Pedro120101996
Bramwell120192008
Ghent120231990
Hanover120241980
Welch120162003
Pt Pleasant120221973

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.