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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Tennessee has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-winged Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.04–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.04–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.040.55
20260.300.040.55
20270.300.040.55
20280.290.040.55
20290.290.040.55

Blue-winged Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Silver Pt420241982
Glen319661966
Sweetlips220081990
Lewis Forest220211966
Jones Gap120132013
Mecca120181994
Big Sandy120132013
Silerton120001997
Pond Creek120231968
Indian Mound119971967
Collinwood120241966
Wrigley120191966
Campbellsville120151971
Belotes Bend120051982
White House119751971
Petersburg120132013
Peytonsville119731967
Bradyville120191966
Tullahoma119681968
Union Hill120151981
Jasper119951977
Elk Valley120192019
Smokey Jct120021975
Oliver Spgs120001978
Mcfarland119751975

Blue-winged Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.