BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
274Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 58% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.001.2
20270.580.001.2
20280.570.001.2
20290.570.001.2
20300.570.001.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY121997
ClendeninWEST-VIRGINIA102025
CarterKENTUCKY92025
RiftonNEW-YORK91986
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY81978
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY82024
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA82025
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY71997
Tick RidgeOHIO72019
GeslingKENTUCKY61973
CamptonKENTUCKY62021
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA62022
HendersonWEST-VIRGINIA62023
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY51995
RayOHIO52025
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA52021
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA52021
FayettevilleWEST-VIRGINIA51996
KehoeKENTUCKY41992
Platte CoveNEW-YORK41990
McdonoughNEW-YORK42015
CentervilleNEW-YORK42013
Orange LakeNEW-YORK41992
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA42000
SlateWEST-VIRGINIA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.