BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.11–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±174.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.11–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.750.111.4
20260.750.111.4
20270.750.111.4
20280.750.111.4
20290.750.111.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShaftsburyVERMONT82000
BranchportNEW-YORK52024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK52024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA42023
DuanesburgNEW-YORK32017
MendonNEW-YORK32008
Cherry HillNEW-YORK32019
OneidaNEW-YORK31997
StrongsvilleOHIO31983
North PownalVERMONT32011
CatskillsNEW-YORK22007
Ballston LkNEW-YORK21995
RomulusNEW-YORK21997
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22023
HamburgNEW-YORK22012
CastileNEW-YORK22024
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
ClintonNEW-YORK22006
SalemNEW-YORK22021
North EastonNEW-YORK22007
NaplesNEW-YORK22024
Harris HillNEW-YORK22005
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA22009
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA22024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.