BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-winged Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.24–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.24–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.520.230.80
20270.520.230.80
20280.520.240.80
20290.520.240.81
20300.520.240.81

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Levee 2KENTUCKY82019
WilliamsvillMISSOURI62024
Clementine 2MISSOURI52007
RomeOHIO52025
PorterKENTUCKY42025
CascadeMISSOURI42025
IrontonMISSOURI41980
WescoMISSOURI42008
ClementineMISSOURI41996
Osage BeachMISSOURI42023
Silver PtTENNESSEE42024
LurtonARKANSAS32010
AvocaARKANSAS31967
Ozark NfARKANSAS32025
GeorgiaINDIANA32021
PalaceMISSOURI32025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE32025
GlenTENNESSEE31966
HillsboroALABAMA21982
ZionARKANSAS22022
MarshallARKANSAS22021
New PhilaINDIANA22023
VevayINDIANA22025
HegiraKENTUCKY22015
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.