BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-winged Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Blue-winged Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.25–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.25–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.240.81
20260.530.240.81
20270.530.250.81
20280.530.250.81
20290.530.250.82

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Blue-winged Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Levee 2KENTUCKY82019
PalaceMISSOURI82024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI62024
Clementine 2MISSOURI52007
RomeOHIO52024
IrontonMISSOURI41980
WescoMISSOURI42008
ClementineMISSOURI41996
Osage BeachMISSOURI42023
Silver PtTENNESSEE42024
LurtonARKANSAS32010
AvocaARKANSAS31967
GeorgiaINDIANA32021
GlenTENNESSEE31966
HillsboroALABAMA21982
ZionARKANSAS22022
MarshallARKANSAS22021
New PhilaINDIANA22023
HegiraKENTUCKY22015
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22017
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY21981
East UnionKENTUCKY22009
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY21998
SwedenMISSOURI22023
HandleyMISSOURI22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.