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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Missouri has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Missouri. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Missouri is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 19–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Missouri is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 19–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025311944
2026311944
2027311944
2028311944
2029311944

American Robin Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording American Robin in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kahoka28020242002
Hamilton7819851972
Madison7320241971
Sni Mills7019901967
Tarkio6619891968
Emden6420242017
Watson6320241991
New Point5920241994
Kirksville5620241994
Gildehouse5519891978
Elmo5220232016
Mcfall5020241994
Cp Girardeau4920241967
Cole Camp4919901971
Kahoka4919981967
Trenton4620241967
Luray4520242015
Centertown4420241973
Rensselaer4320241971
Lucerne4220212016
Kearney4120241994
Cameron4120231986
Syracuse4020241969
Warren4019841967
Huntsville4020241967

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.