BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Missouri has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Missouri. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Missouri is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 18–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Missouri is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 18–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026311843
2027311843
2028311843
2029311843
2030311843

American Robin Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording American Robin in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne13820252016
Elmo8620252016
Kahoka28020242002
Hamilton7819851972
Madison7320241971
Kirksville7120251994
Sni Mills7019901967
Tarkio6619891968
Emden6420242017
Cameron6020251986
Gildehouse5519891978
Mcfall5220251994
New Point5020251994
Luray5020252015
Cole Camp4919901971
Kahoka4919981967
Watson4920251991
Huntsville4720251967
Trenton4620251967
Akers4520251967
Cp Girardeau4420251967
Kearney4420251994
Syracuse4020241969
Warren4019841967
Rensselaer3920251971

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.