BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

American Robin in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New Mexico is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.58–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New Mexico is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.58–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.40.8112
20276.30.7512
20286.30.6912
20296.20.6412
20306.20.5812

American Robin Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording American Robin in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gallinas5020251992
Angel Fire4720021992
Angel Fire 24320252005
Cloudcroft4020251975
Cebolla2920231973
Capulin2919941993
Mt. Taylor 22820242014
Ojo Sarco2620251968
Mt. Taylor2320121993
Bluewater Lake2320211999
Vallecitos1420251994
Reserve1420251993
Farmington1219871975
Pecos1120171973
La Plata 2820162014
Mesilla820001992
Claunch720001978
Mcgaffey720251994
Emory Pass720251993
Aztec719891988
Claunch 2620252001
Valencia519971968
San Antonio519771975
Dulce520252000
Stinking Lk.519991992

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.