BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

American Robin in New Mexico has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New Mexico is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.73–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.73–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in New Mexico is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.73–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.50.9412
20266.50.8912
20276.40.8412
20286.40.7912
20296.30.7312

American Robin Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording American Robin in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft4820241975
Angel Fire4720021992
Gallinas4320241992
Angel Fire 23720242005
Cebolla2920231973
Capulin2919941993
Mt. Taylor 22820242014
Ojo Sarco2520241968
Mt. Taylor2320121993
Bluewater Lake2320211999
Reserve1420231993
Farmington1219871975
Laborcita 21220242022
Vallecitos1220241994
Pecos1120171973
Emory Pass920241993
La Plata 2820162014
Mesilla820001992
Claunch720001978
Aztec719891988
Fence Lake520241975
Valencia519971968
San Antonio519771975
Stinking Lk.519991992
Mcgaffey520231994

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.