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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Massachusetts has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 30–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 30–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026473262
2027463161
2028463161
2029463161
2030453060

American Robin Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording American Robin in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton16420191967
Cheshire12519941969
Pittsfield9620161967
Belchertown9020251967
Princeton8919761969
Prattville8620191966
Warren 28520252010
Newburyport8120221967
Mansfield7520251968
Maynard7320251967
E Pepperell7119941966
Monterey6720252019
Marion5620251966
N Oxford5420251968
S Barre5420251968
N Orange4320251968
Chilmark4219831969
Holden4220251977
Wellfleet4020071966
Littleton4020251967
Chesterfield3920251967
Warren3720091968
Cape Cod Ns3720071989
Wellfleet 23420252016
E Dennis2620211967

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.