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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

American Robin in Massachusetts has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Robin Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

American Robin Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 30–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 30–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025473262
2026463161
2027463161
2028463161
2029453060

American Robin Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording American Robin in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton16420191967
Cheshire12519941969
Mansfield11320241968
Warren 29920242010
Pittsfield9620161967
Belchertown9420241967
Princeton8919761969
Prattville8620191966
Newburyport8120221967
N Oxford8020241968
Holden7620241977
Maynard7520221967
E Pepperell7119941966
Chesterfield7120241967
S Barre5820241968
Marion5320241966
Monterey5220242019
Littleton4820241967
N Orange4520241968
Chilmark4219831969
Wellfleet4020071966
Warren3720091968
Cape Cod Ns3720071989
Cummington 23720242015
Wellfleet 23420242016

American Robin Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.